A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
