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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the largest improvement receives the prize. However, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or merely the most shocking shock.

But the latest competition is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners declining and recent strugglers ascending together. During an normal year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this wild and thrilling season, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still